Gold should continue to be sought as a safe haven if there is significant uncertainty about future interest rate levels. Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs indicated that the commodity bull market observed last year is likely to continue throughout the current year and beyond. The report also notes that the price of gold has also been affected by the Federal Reserve's tightening policy. In the short term, the negative impact of these trade tensions has only caused a modest response from the price of gold.
Rising interest rates are generally negative for the price of gold, unless inflation rises even faster. Let's return to the idea of cyclicality in the gold market and to future patterns that rhyme with past history. In addition to interest rate policy, the escalation of geopolitical tensions is one of the most consistent factors for investors and large institutions to buy gold as a safe haven. When real rates are high, owning gold is less attractive (compared to assets that generate returns, such as bonds).
While gold has performed well relative to all other asset classes this year, new hurdles are expected for gold in the short term. As for the data, Friday's non-farm payroll data and US inflation data. Next week's U.S. will affect the price of gold in the new month.
However, even with the upward forecast for the price of gold in 2025, Bitcoin's competition as a store of value may limit its upward potential. As mentioned earlier, I believe that the two factors that will have the biggest impact on the price of gold will ultimately be monetary policy and geopolitics. Any forward-looking statement regarding the forecast of the price of gold should not be used or interpreted as investment advice. I use a combination of technical analysis and observation of market fundamentals to make my predictions about the price of gold.